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Journal Articles on Futures

Editor's Comment: This time I put in most of the abstracts. Although it makes the document longer, there are useful and interesting insights here! Also, after this search, I'm convinced the THCU should subscribe to "the futurist;" it seems to have much relevant information for those of us in health promotion. Happy reading! --Lorraine Telford

Van Dusen Wishard, Wm. (1999). Globalization: humanity's great experiment The Futurist. 33(8) p. 60-1.

Johnson, Dan. (1999). Six safer cities. The-Futurist. 33(8) p. 18.

DESCRIPTORS: Community-policing; Crime-prevention-Citizen-participation.

Moses, Barbara. (1999). Career intelligence: the 12 new rules for success The-Futurist. 33(7) p. 28-35.

Abstract: By remaining aware of new trends and becoming skilled at making changes, we can become career activists and keep up with rapid changes. It is vital to define yourself independently from your organization and take charge of your career choices to become a career activist and develop career intelligence. To make informed choices, it is vital to define what your key strengths, interests, and values are. Then, it is essential to see yourself as capable and to develop a personal success strategy. The writer provides advice on career success.

Pelton, Joseph, N. (1999). The fast-growing global brain. The-Futurist. 33(7) p. 24-7.

Abstract: The development of planetary intelligence poses new risks. Humans are in danger of being engulfed by information and surpassed by mechanical communications networks. Having long thought in terms of the global village, we are actually advancing toward the global brain. Humanity's cultural environment will be altered irrevocably by the economic shift from human labor to nonstop machine-driven operations. The economic, social, cultural, and political fallout of this transition to a global brain needs to be far better understood.

Lippin, Richard A. (1999). Responsible pleasures: a doctor's prescription for what ails you. The-Futurist. 33(6) p. 34-8.

Abstract: For a longer, healthier life, physicians are increasingly likely to prescribe a number of "responsible pleasures." Good and caring physicians have always attempted to supplement pharmacological prescriptions with reasonable advice on lifestyles, but recently, empirical advice has advanced this common practice to a higher level of scientifically based advice, or "behavioral prescriptions." The writer explores the growing trend in behavioral medicine, focusing on four responsible pleasures: laughter, the arts, sexuality, and work.

Johnson, Dan. (1999). Thinking big for the millennium. The-Futurist. 33(6) p. 22-6.

Abstract: The millennium label is being stuck on a range of projects, from space missions to candy. The writer identifies a number of the more serious activities planned to mark the millennium.

Buchen, Irving H. (1999). Business sees profits in education: challenging public schools. The-Futurist. 33(5) p. 38-44.

Abstract: Private enterprise is creating a rapid and dramatic series of changes in education. The private sector is moving into education for three reasons. First, education is a lucrative market, estimated to be worth $600 billion (in the U.S.). Second, it has received such bad publicity that confidence in the system is low. Third, the general attitude is that public educators have no one but themselves to blame for corrective intervention from the private sector. The writer describes the different companies competing for the educational market, grouped by the main technology they use.

Cornish, Edward. (1999). The increase of the elderly in the population. The Futurist. 33(5) p. 19.

Abstract: The increase in the number of centenarians is part of the worldwide increase in people aged 85 and over. To explain the significance of this trend, the staff of the World Future Society has identified a number of its causes and effects in relation to demography, economics, the environment, government, society, and technology. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Wagner, C. (1999). Improving the prospects for poor children. The-Futurist. 33(5) p. 10.

Abstract: By examining how the lives of low-income and higher-income families differ, researchers hope to gain insights into helping children to break the cycle of poverty. A recent joint study by the Urban Institute and Child Trends of the 1997 National Survey of America's Children showed that children in households below 200 percent of poverty level clearly fare worse than those in higher-income families: Their parents are more likely to have mental health problems, and the children themselves are more likely to have behavioral and emotional difficulties.

Masini, Eleonora Barbieri. (1998). Futures Studies from the Experience of a Sociologist Who Tries to Be a Futurist. American-Behavioral-Scientist 42(3) p. 340-346.

Abstract: Explores the relationship between futures studies & the social sciences historically & reflecting on personal experience as a sociologist in teaching & research in both areas. What is changing, and what can change, in the future to the benefit of both areas is briefly discussed.

Mayur, Rashmi & Daviss, Bennett (1998). How NOT to Develop an Emerging Nation. The Futurist 32(1) p. 27-31.

Abstract: Fallacies of the mass industrialization model of economic development of emerging countries are examined. This bigger-is-better model of development is antiquated & irrelevant to poor countries with limited resources. Six of the model's flaws are discussed. The postindustrial world requires a new conception of development rooted in decentralization & focused on microenterprise. Governments can take two crucial steps to facilitate the spread of postindustrial technologies suitable for microenterprise endeavors: (1) shift of financial support away from agencies funding massive development to smaller & even private agencies & (2) forging of partnerships between international financial agencies & groups working to implement this new development model.

Rubin, Anita. (1996). The Sociologist, the Post-Modernist, the Mother and the Futurist. Futures. 28(6-7), p. 656-658.

Abstract: The author traces her past accomplishments, ideology, & future hopes for the world, in light of her professional position as a researcher for Finland's Futures Research Center, & notes the influence on her career of Robert Jungk's philosophy on universal change & the experience of having a child & wanting a better world for her baby. Her research has three main focal points: (1) understanding how future visions are created in the present; (2) evaluating past experiences & their association with present philosophy on the future; & (3) seeking to understand how the present world will affect the future. An unpredictable & ever-changing reality, a society that blurs the boundaries of private & public, & the world impact of every individual's actions & decisions are the forces that will influence the future.

Masini, Eleonora Barbieri (1996). A Future with Dignity. Futures 28(6-7) p. 626-629.

Abstract: An autobiographical sketch of the author's career as a sociologist/futurist & her vision of the future world. A critical view of the present world is presented, suggesting that technological advancements will only increase the problem of global inequality. It is hoped that people will eventually be proactive about maintaining the environment & will begin to demand an equitable life.

Hines, Andy (1995). A Checklist for Evaluating Forecasts. Futurist 29(6) p. 20-24.

Abstract: Consumers need training to interpret forecasts. A checklist of criteria to use to determine the seriousness of a forecast is presented. The source should be considered, ie, credentials, reputation, & biases. Formal methods, eg, the Delphi method or cross-impact matrices, generally yield sounder forecasts. Stated or implicit assumptions, technological & social, & references to trigger events should be included. The checklist should also include the time horizon of the forecast, the specific projections, & key new future capabilities. The user should look for missing items, implications for society or a relevant subsegment, & then evaluate the accuracy & usefulness of the forecast. If the forecast prompts action, it is a good one.

Toffler, Alvin & Toffler, Heidi. (1995). Getting Set for the Coming Millennium. Futurist 29(2) p. 10-15.

Abstract: Americans are increasingly alienated by party politics, but should understand that this political infighting is crucial to the outcome of future society. This party politics represents a split between attitudes about second wave civilization - industrial mass society - & the coming third wave-innovation of industrial socioeconomic structures. Most of the political conflicts seen in the media concern second-wave groups attempting to preserve their waning power, particularly by mobilizing agendas nostalgic for 1950s-style industry, values, & culture. There are, however, elements of third-wave reform within the federal government. The Republican party, with few connections to the traditional democratic structure, is perhaps most capable of becoming the third-wave party, particularly in their calls for government deregulation & privatization & free-market flexibility. Most of the private sector is already shifting to information & technology intensive forms of third-wave business, to which politicians must now respond. An effective third-wave agenda will propose systems based on diverse, flexible, & demassified models that focus on the home & family.

Snider, James H. (1995). The Information Superhighway as Environmental Menace. Futurist 29(2) p. 16-19,21.

Abstracts: While the information superhighway may provide exciting alternative forms of work, the increase of telecommuting may allow a massive migration to rural regions, which could devastate the environment. Historically, the number of Americans living in rural areas has declined, with 80% currently residing in metropolitan areas, though since the 1990s, new information technology jobs & their elimination of transportation barriers have allowed the trend to reverse. This is unlikely to change, given Americans' love of the single-family detached home surrounded by a natural setting. Large-scale movement of this type will generate massive suburban building & eradicate the open spaces of the rural US. Preventing the building of the electronic superhighway in environmentally sensitive areas is perhaps the most effective short-term solution to this problem, though strengthening land conservation through zoning & changing public attitudes about desirable living conditions will also be necessary.

Barner,-Robert (1994). The New Career Strategist: Career Management for the Year 2000 and Beyond. Futurist 28(5) p. 8-14.

Abstract: Identifies emerging large-scale workplace changes that are quickly forcing professionals to adopt a radically new approach to career development. The traditional career planning model has been based on the use of linear, rigid planning, age-dependent goals, & organizational career paths perceived to be stable & fixed. Over the next ten years, this model will be supplanted by the career strategist model, which emphasizes the use of multiple, short-term career objectives, career self-direction, & career goals independent of age. To illustrate these differences, a three-year career scenario for a work professional of the future is provided. Also addressed are the future career challenges faced by two-career couples, technical specialists, & educators, & provides five steps professionals can take to become career strategies.

Kidder, Rushworth M. (1994). Universal Human Values: Finding an Ethical Common Ground. Futurist 28(4) p. 8-13.

Abstract: The Institute for Global Ethics in Camden, ME, interviewed 24 individuals from 16 nations in an effort to identify a global code of ethics. The interviews sought to bring out, not the varying nature of ethical or moral crises in different cultures, but rather, the fundamental similarities in moral codes throughout the world. The thought-leaders, deriving from backgrounds as diverse as Japanese Buddhism to the American Indian Movement, identified eight values as essential to their global code of ethics: love, truthfulness, fairness, freedom, unity, tolerance, responsibility, & respect for life. The interviewees agreed not only in the importance of finding the "moral glue" that binds the world together, but also that values can be identified that are universally accepted. In an increasingly complex world in which technological advancements & population growth are soaring, it is becoming ever more critical to produce a code of ethics with which to govern behavior within the boundaries of the shrinking global community.

Modis, Theodore (1994). Life Cycles: Forecasting the Rise and Fall of Almost Anything. Futurist 28(5) p. 20-25.

Eckersley, Richard M. (1993). The West's Deepening Cultural Crisis. Futurist 27(6) p. 8-12.

Abstract: Western nations are experiencing a profound failure of culture marked by flawed & confused values, too rapid change on too many fronts, & a loss of faith in progress & the future. As a result, modern Western culture no longer provides a sense of purpose, belonging, & meaning or a clear moral framework, which are the key functions of any culture. This failure has contributed to worsening psychological & social problems, especially among youth, who are most vulnerable. These include suicide, drug abuse, eating disorders, depressive illness, & violent crime. Surveys suggest the problems are just the tip of an iceberg of public disillusion, discontent, & disaffection. Science & technology have played the major role in causing this cultural crisis, but science may now also offer a solution through the creation of a new worldview that emphasizes our close interrelationship & interdependence with the world around us.

Hogan, M. Janice (1993). Family Futures: Possibilities, Preferences and Probabilities. Marriage and Family Review18(3-4) p. 255-262.

Abstract: Investigates the potential of families to design their futures, analyzing their planning attitudes, goal setting & achievement, & preferences for role change, via longitudinal survey data from 235 married couples. Support is found for the concept of "family as futurists" among both husbands & wives. Educators & researchers are encouraged to further examine futurist concepts & methodologies.

DiLorenzo, Thomas J. (1993). The Mirage of Sustainable Development. Futurist 27(5) p. 14-19.

Abstract: Criticizes the association between government regulation & environmental protection, arguing that high pollution rates in the former communist countries prove that national & international human behavior regulation is not the solution. By focusing on issues of deforestation, desertification, & wildlife management, advocated are private property rights & liability laws to increase owners' responsibility for resources, & thus to support sustainable development.